Chronic Coastal Hazards Modeling

Chronic coastal hazards, such as flooding and erosion, are becoming more frequent and intense. We need a comprehensive understanding of potential future hazards and the uncertainties associated with them. In the Stochastic Chronic Coastal Hazards Modeling Project, we use a combination of models to explore future coastal hazard impacts and uncertainty.

  • Cascadia-wide region.
  • Yaquina Bay, Oregon.


Peter Ruggiero, peter.ruggiero@oregonstate.edu 

Hub Researchers

  • Peter Ruggiero
  • Meredith Leung
  • Mohsen Taherkhani
  • Carson Williams


Collaborators

  • Med Reed, DLCD
  • Jonathan Allan (DOGAMI)
  • George Kaminsky (Washington ECY)
  • Charlie Plybon (Surfrider Foundation)
  • Others



Project Objective:

To make informed adaptation decisions, we need a comprehensive understanding of potential future hazards and the uncertainties associated with them.

In the Stochastic Chronic Coastal Hazards Modeling Project, we use a combination of statistical, hybrid statistical-dynamical, and reduced-physics models to explore future coastal hazard impacts and uncertainty. The co-developed research described below is designed to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on coastal hazards as well as inform climate-change adaptation in Cascadia communities.

To improve the observation data feeding these models (and ultimately improve the models’ skill), this project also supports several coastal monitoring endeavors, including the Cascadia-wide extraction of satellite derived shorelines and bathymetric surveys. We strive to make the results of this project relevant and accessible to Cascadia stakeholders and have presented the results in many different formats to several different audiences.

21st Century Chronic Coastal Hazards Exposure Assessment

This uses hazard proxies for erosion, flooding, and unsafe beach conditions under three sea level rise scenarios (Leung et al., in revision). This project identifies areas within Cascadia that experience high hazard impacts and high rates of hazard change. These projections rely on simple calculations that can offer a first-cut assessment of where further research or greater investment in adaptation resources is needed.

Probabilistic Shoreline Change Projections

This uses a reduced-physics shoreline change model, CoSMoS-COAST (Vitousek et al., 2023). This project focuses on probabilistically quantifying the location, intensity, and rate of coastal erosion, as well as changing beach widths induced by climate change until 2100 along the Cascadia coast. The CoSMoS-COAST model is calibrated by using the spatially and temporally high-resolution historical shoreline position data set (1984-2021) that is derived from satellite imagery.

Reduced-physics Flood Modeling

This has the capacity to simulate compound coastal flooding with highly accurate results and minimal computational demand compared to full-physics models. Extreme water levels within Yaquina Bay are caused by a combination of complex hydrodynamic drivers, which can result in compound flooding. Here a reduced-physics model, SFINCS (Leijnse et al., 2021), is employed for assessing a large range of flooding scenarios with a variety of complex drivers.

Flowchart

Peer-reviewed articles:

progress:

Leung, M., Cagigal, L., Mendez, F., & Ruggiero, P., (2023). Projecting Future Chronic Coastal Hazard Impacts, Hotspots, and Uncertainty at Regional Scale. Preprint. Earth and Space Science Open Archive (In revision with Earth’s Future).

https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169722116.61393621/v1

Graffin, M., Kaminsky, G., Leung, M., Ruggiero, P., Taherkhani, M., & Vitousek, S. (2023). Monitoring interdecadal coastal change along dissipative beaches via satellite imagery at regional scale. Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, 1, e42, Article e42.

https://doi.org/10.1017/cft.2023.30

Taherkhani, M., Leung, M., Ruggiero, P., Vitousek, S., & Allan, J. (2023). Multiscale assessment of shoreline evolution in the US Pacific Northwest via a process-based model. In Coastal Sediments 2023: The Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2023 (pp. 1437-1451).



  • Regional Stochastic TWL modeling (TESLA) – Complete
  • Regional Chronic Hazard Exposure Analysis – Complete
  • Regional Shoreline Change Assessment – Mid Project
  • Yaquina Bay Flood Modeling – Beginning